Question:

What do you think the impact of the election would be on the market? In your experience how have past elections impacted investing?

Answer:

“Prediction is difficult, particularly when it involves the future.” Mark Twain

Predictions of politics and markets are particularly difficult now for one major reason. The data you need to make predictions is not available because everything is changing so history does not help as much as it used to.

Today for example, the employment numbers came in lower than expected. Is the recession just around the corner or was it caused by the weather? July was the hottest July in history. Home construction is a major outdoor employer. So, how reliable is the July employee count.

On the political side we now have a new party, the MAGA party. Is old Republican data useful?

We do have some data, however. But remember, there are white lies, bold-faced lies and statistics.

Had you only invested when your chosen political party was in office during the period of *1953, the start of the S&P, to 2023, an investment of $10,000 would have grown as follows:

When Republican Presidents were in office the account would have appreciated to $ 83,356
When Democratic Presidents were in office the account would have appreciated to $ 236,287
A clear winner, right? Not really. Remember statistics lie.

If you stayed invested regardless of party, your appreciation would have been $ 1,986,266

Changes in Party or Animal, Bull or Bear markets, are best ignored if your goal is to maximum growth.

*Note: Data from Zacks Investment Management.

*in the case of a discrepancy between Fidelity Investments monthly statements and Katz Family Financial monthly portfolio statements, Fidelity Investment statements should be deemed as the correct and accurate report source.