Virus

March 5, 2020

We are well aware that emotions are high and many of you are asking, “What should we do?”

This past week, we’ve been saying the same thing we always do: our strategy is to research and invest in worthwhile stocks for all types of markets. We build personal endowments. These have helped colleges and universities become some of the oldest institutions in the world. I’ve never heard of a college that sold out just because of a temporary market decline. The stocks we pick are meant to be owned through both the downturns — and the eventual recoveries.

Some things to consider during this tumultuous time:

  • Selling good companies with the intent of buying them back later almost never works. Markets tend to rebound faster than most people’s comfort levels.
  • The market’s reaction appears to be driven by both the virus and politics. The coming days should help clarify the Democratic primary race.
  • Another concern is that the Federal Reserve cannot address the economic side of the crisis through interest rate cuts alone. The Fed could, however, ease economic pressure by signaling support for debtors and creditors affected by the virus—such as airlines and cruise lines.
  • We’ve experienced market disruptions caused by non-recessionary events before. These events often lead to sharp, but brief, declines with swift recoveries.
  • It typically takes a significant recession to impact the market for a prolonged period. As of now, there’s no clear evidence of one, beyond speculation on the virus’s potential spread.
  • Even major recessions tend to be short-lived, and markets have always recovered and reached new highs.
  • Goldman Sachs recently suggested that earnings growth this year may be zero. That’s not the same as a recession.
  • Economic slowdowns often push companies to reassess their business models — boosting efficiency and laying the foundation for stronger recoveries.
  • Medical advancements have accelerated rapidly. Our response to this virus is likely to be far faster and more effective than in previous outbreaks.
  • Some sectors, like airlines and restaurants, may suffer in the short term. But stay alert — these companies may become some of the best long-term opportunities.

Katz Family Financial

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