The Case for November Investing

November 1, 2016

What is the best month to buy into the stock market? Stocktober. Research indicates that long term there are only small differences between buying months or buying at the peaks or bottoms of markets. There is a significant difference between liquidating in anticipation of a decline and holding long term. Liquidators earn only one-third the returns of long — term holders.

Waiting for an ideal moment to invest or an ideal stock price is also self — defeating. If you were to pick a month to invest, it would probably be November. For years, I noticed that great rallies seemed to start the day after Thanksgiving. The usual selling before holiday weekends provides bargain prices. That, combined with the optimism we gain from sitting around the Thanksgiving table and realizing everyone’s lives seem to be much better than the media would lead us to believe, seems to make it a perfect entry point.

Some reasons supporting this theory are as follows:

  • October, since the 1929 crash, makes investors nervous and they postpone investing until November.
  • The bullish period of the year is November until May. The saying is “Sell in May and Go Away.”
  • The uncertainty of the elections ends in early November. In an election year, November is the best month for stock market performance.
  • Retail begins its most profitable time of year.

Whatever the reason, it does not matter. Stock market participation and tree planting follow the same rules: The best time to start them is 20 years ago.

Sincerely,

Katz Family Financial

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